Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
- US-Iran ceasefire optimism is fueling a fresh rally on Wall Street.
- Lower oil prices, reduced shipping and aviation risks, and renewed consumer willingness to travel and invest are creating a multi-sector tailwind.
- While no outcome is guaranteed and negotiations remain fluid, the early market reaction suggests these three names are poised to outperform as the rally broadens.
As reports of a potential US-Iran ceasefire gain traction, markets are breathing a sigh of relief. Oil prices have plunged, removing a major headwind for energy-sensitive sectors, while broader stock indices have rebounded sharply on reduced geopolitical risk.
Here are three standout stocks that investors should consider buying amid shifting geopolitical winds.
1. Southwest Airlines
- YTD Return: -3.6%
- Market Cap: $19.6 Billion
Southwest Airlines (NYSE:LUV) is emerging from a turbulent patch, with its stock down 3.6% in 2026 but showing signs of renewed strength. The low-cost carrier, known for its domestic focus and customer-friendly model, stands to benefit enormously from falling oil prices.
Source: InvestingPro
InvestingPro’s Fair Value model points to 13.1% potential upside, while analysts rate the stock a Strong Buy, with average 12-month price targets around $47.50, implying 19% upside.
LUV’s financial health score of 2.03 suggests moderate stability, and with travel demand set for records this spring, there’s a credible setup for a rebound as geopolitical fears ease.
2. Caterpillar
- YTD Return: +25.1%
- Market Cap: $333.4 Billion
Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) is in a class of its own for 2026, boasting a 25.1% YTD gain. Even as global jitters hit most sectors, CAT has surged to record highs, supported by robust infrastructure demand and a stellar financial health score of 2.66 (the highest among these three).
Source: Investing.com
The analyst consensus price target of $736.21 is just above the current price. With a 20.7% EBITDA margin and a 43.5% ROE, CAT’s operational strength is undeniable.
The construction and mining equipment company stands out as a direct beneficiary of global infrastructure rebuilding and commodity demand. Its forward P/E and earnings momentum suggest the rally has further room to run amid reduced geopolitical friction in the Middle East.
3. Norwegian Cruise Line
- YTD Return: -11.9%
- Market Cap: $9 Billion
Norwegian Cruise Line (NYSE:NCLH) is the contrarian’s pick, down 11.9% YTD yet attracting renewed analyst interest. Cruise operators like Norwegian are exepected to be among the biggest beneficiaries of the de-escalation news. Fuel is one of their largest variable costs, so the sharp drop in oil prices is a direct margin booster.
Source: InvestingPro
Truist has just reaffirmed a buy rating at $25.00, and the average price target stands at $22.68, representing a 15.4% fair value upside from here. NCLH’s financial health score of 2.54 puts it ahead of LUV but behind CAT, and its 23.3% ROE and 25.9% EBITDA margin hint at underlying earnings power.
For those betting on a cyclical rebound, NCLH offers asymmetric upside as geopolitical tensions ease and discretionary travel recovers heading into the summer season.
Bottom Line
Each of these three stocks offers a different angle on the ceasefire-fueled rally: Southwest is a recovery play with strong leverage to oil prices, Caterpillar is a momentum juggernaut with pristine financials, and Norwegian Cruise Line is a high-risk, high-reward rebound candidate.
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Disclosure: This is not financial advice. Always conduct your own research.
At the time of writing, I am long on the S&P 500, and the Nasdaq 100 via the SPDR® S&P 500 ETF, and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF. I am also long on the Technology Select Sector SPDR ETF. I regularly rebalance my portfolio of individual stocks and ETFs based on ongoing risk assessment of both the macroeconomic environment and companies’ financials.
The views discussed in this article are solely the opinion of the author and should not be taken as investment advice.
Follow Jesse Cohen on X/Twitter @JesseCohenInv for more stock market analysis and insight.
