Trump says Iran war "close to over" amid hopes for more negotiations
- USD/JPY extends consolidation below key SMA
- Momentum indicators flatten, signalling muted momentum
USD/JPY is attempting to stabilise after halting a two‑day pullback, oscillating in a narrow range below the key 20‑day simple moving average (SMA) near the 159.00 psychological level. The pair remains confined within a broader 158.20-159.70 range that has held for just over a month.
Momentum indicators are easing back toward mid‑range levels, warranting caution before placing aggressive directional bets – the MACD remains in positive territory but below its signal line, while the RSI hovers near neutral, amid mixed geopolitical cues.
The dollar continues to soften amid renewed hopes of a US‑Iran peace deal, while the yen has found modest support as reports suggest the BoJ is considering upward revisions to its inflation forecasts, though broader economic concerns linked to instability around the Strait of Hormuz continue to cap demand.
On the upside, initial resistance is seen at the 20‑day SMA near 159.19, followed by the range top at 159.70. Beyond that, the multi‑year high at 160.45, set in late April, comes back into focus.
On the downside, support lies at the range floor near 158.20, followed by the 50‑day SMA around 157.50 and the 100‑day SMA just below, ahead of 156.40. A break below this zone would increase downside pressure, potentially opening the way toward the long‑term uptrend near 155.50.
Summing up, USD/JPY remains trapped in choppy range‑bound trading, with small‑bodied candles and overlapping price action highlighting indecision. For now, a sustained reclaim of the 20‑day SMA is needed to ease immediate downside pressure and signal scope for a deeper recovery.